MGF 1106 WCU Expected Value of A Mega Ball Ticket Project

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MGF 1106 Project
With the recent Mega ball jackpot of 1.6 billion dollars, I thought it would be interesting to see
what the expected value of a mega ball ticket is. We will be using the starting point jackpot of
$40,000,000. Since the prize amounts and probabilities stay the same, we should be able to do the
calculations with the skills we learned in the probability chapter. Since calculating the probabilities can
get somewhat convoluted, I did this for you. Remember from our studies to calculate the expected
value, we multiply the probably of the event occurring by the winnings (or loses) for said event. When
calculating this, don forget to deduct the cost of the ticket ($2.00) from any winnings. Use the table
below to calculate the expected value of a mega ball ticket. Remember, the expected value is the
expected winnings/loses over many trials. Which means, your solution will be the expected outcome per
ticket if you were to buy every possible combination of numbers (all 302,575,350 of them). After
calculating the expected value of a ticket, use the information you have calculated to calculate how
much the grand prize needs to be in order to break even (have an expected value of $0). Upload your
solutions.
Matching numbers
Match 5 + Megaball
Match 5
Match 4 + Megaball
Match 4
Match 3 + Megaball
Match 3
Match 2 + Megaball
Match 1 + Megaball
Match 0 + Megaball
Not a Winner
Probability
1
302575350
24
302575350
325
302575350
7800
302575350
20800
302575350
499300
302575350
436617
302575350
3399723
302575350
817712
302575350
297842418
302575350
Prize
40000000
1000000
10000
500
200
10
10
4
2
0
Net Gain/Loss
Prob*Net

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