Managerial Economics (ECO 506)
Group Assignment (3 students per group)
Marks: 20
Due Date: 5th December 2022
Estimation of Energy Demand Function
Use the dataset ssignment-data!vailable on LMS. It has a data by year on US
gasoline consumption
(G), gasoline prices (PG), per-capita income (Y), price of new cars (PNC), price of
used cars (PUC), and population (POP). By using the data, perform the following
tasks:
i.
Calculate gasoline per capita consumption (GPC) and draw a line graph and
interpret the trend.
[2 marks]
Economic theory suggest the following, in relation to a demand function for the
gasoline:
GPC = f(PG, Y, PNC, PUC)
With a regression model in log form as follows:
log GPC = logA + B1 log PG + B2 log Y + B3 log PNC + B4 log PUC
(1)
ii.
iii.
iv.
Determine the signs of regression coefficients using economic theory and
provide reasoning
Run a simple regression model (by using equation 1 above) and interpret
regression coefficients and elasticities and provide reasoning for each
coefficient. Are the regression coefficients similar to the economic theory? If
not, what could be the reason? Consult some academic literature.
[10 marks]
Now create previous year gasoline consumption (LPrevGPC) variable as an
independent variable and re-run regression model (equation 2) as follows:
log GPC = logA+B1 log PG+B2 log Y +B3 log PNC+B4 log PUC+B5 log PrevGPC,
(2)
Where the expression B1/(1 ? B5) is in fact long run elasticity of demand. Calculate
this long run elasticity of demand and interpret the number by comparing it with short
run price elasticity. What conclusion would you draw from these estimates?
[4 marks]
v.
What sort of recommendations you would make as an analyst to an energy
firm operating in the USA in relation to the pricing and disposable income in
particular.
[4 marks]
YEAR
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
GASEXP POP
GASP
INCOME PNC
PUC
PPT
PD
7.4
159565
16.668
8883
47.2
26.7
16.8
7.8
162391
17.029
8685
46.5
22.7
18
8.6
165275
17.21
9137
44.8
21.5
18.5
9.4
168221
17.729
9436
46.1
20.7
19.2
10.2
171274
18.497
9534
48.5
23.2
19.9
10.6
174141
18.316
9343
50
24
20.9
11.3
177130
18.576
9738
52.2
26.8
21.5
12
180760
19.112
9770
51.5
25
22.2
12
183742
18.924
9843
51.5
26
23.2
12.6
186590
19.043
10226
51.3
28.4
24
13
189300
18.997
10398
51
28.7
24.3
13.6
191927
18.873
11051
50.9
30
24.7
14.8
194347
19.587
11430
49.7
29.8
25.2
16
196599
20.038
11981
48.8
29
26.1
17.1
198752
20.7
12418
49.3
29.9
27.4
18.6
200745
21.005
12932
50.7
30.7
28.7
20.5
202736
21.696
13060
51.5
30.9
30.9
21.9
205089
21.89
13567
53
31.2
35.2
23.2
207692
22.05
14008
55.2
33
37.8
24.4
209924
22.336
14270
54.7
33.1
39.3
28.1
211939
24.473
15309
54.8
35.2
39.7
36.1
213898
33.059
15074
57.9
36.7
40.6
39.7
215981
35.278
15555
62.9
43.8
43.5
43
218086
36.777
15693
66.9
50.3
47.8
46.9
220289
38.907
15991
70.4
54.7
50
50.1
222629
40.597
16674
75.8
55.8
51.5
66.2
225106
54.406
16843
81.8
60.2
54.9
86.7
227726
75.509
16711
88.4
62.3
69
97.9
230008
84.018
17046
93.7
76.9
85.6
94.1
232218
79.768
17429
97.4
88.8
94.9
93.1
234333
77.16
17659
99.9
98.7
99.5
94.6
236394
76.005
18922
102.8
112.5
105.7
97.2
238506
76.619
19622
106.1
113.7
110.5
80.1
240683
60.175
19944
110.6
108.8
117
85.4
242843
62.488
19802
114.6
113.1
121.1
88.3
245061
63.017
20682
116.9
118
123.3
98.6
247387
68.837
21048
119.2
120.4
129.5
111.2
250181
78.385
21379
121
117.6
142.6
108.5
253530
77.338
21129
125.3
118.1
148.9
112.4
256922
77.04
21505
128.4
123.2
151.4
114.1
260282
76.257
21515
131.5
133.9
167
116.2
263455
76.614
21797
136
141.7
172
120.2
266588
77.826
22100
139
156.5
175.9
130.4
269714
82.596
22506
141.4
157
181.9
134.4
272958
82.579
22944
141.7
151.1
186.7
122.4
276154
71.874
24079
140.7
150.6
190.3
37.7
36.8
36.1
36.1
37.2
37.8
38.4
38.1
38.1
38.5
38.6
39
38.8
38.9
39.4
40.7
42.2
44.1
46
46.9
48.1
51.5
57.4
60.9
64.4
68.6
75.4
83
89.6
95.1
99.8
105.1
106.8
106.6
108.2
110.4
112.2
113.4
116
118.6
121.3
124.8
128
129.4
128.7
127.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
137.9
175.7
171.6
163.4
191.3
224.5
279328
282429
285366
288217
291073
293951
78.207
100
96.289
90.405
105.154
123.901
24464
25380
25449
26352
26437
27113
139.6
139.6
138.9
137.3
134.7
133.9
152
155.8
158.7
152
142.9
133.3
197.7
209.6
210.6
207.4
209.3
209.1
126
125.4
124.6
121.4
117.5
114.8
PN
PS
29.7
29.7
29.5
29.9
30.9
31.7
31.5
32
32.2
32.5
32.9
33.2
33.8
35.1
35.7
37.1
38.9
40.8
42.1
43.5
47.5
54
58.3
60.5
64
68.6
77.2
87.6
95.2
97.8
99.7
102.5
104.8
103.5
107.5
111.8
118.2
126
130.3
132.8
135.1
136.8
139.3
143.5
146.4
146.9
19.4
20
20.4
20.9
21.8
22.6
23.3
24.1
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.6
27.6
28.8
30.3
32.4
35
37
38.4
40.1
43.8
48
52
56
60.8
67.5
77.9
88.1
96
99.4
104.6
109.9
115.4
120.2
125.7
131.9
139.2
146.3
152
157.9
163.1
168.7
174.1
179.4
184.2
Year = Year, 1953-2004,
GasExp = Total U.S. gasoline expenditure,
Pop = U.S. total population in thousands
GasP = Price index for gasoline,
Income = Per capita disposable income,
Pnc = Price index for new cars,
Puc = Price index for used cars,
Ppt = Price index for public transportation,
Pd = Aggregate price index for consumer durables,
Pn = Aggregate price index for consumer nondurables,
Ps = Aggregate price index for consumer services.
gp=1000000*gasexp/(pop*gasp)
151.2
158.2
160.6
161.1
165.3
172.2
188.8
195.3
203.4
209.8
216.5
222.8
ldisp
lnp
lnloancons lngdppc lncpi
13.35615 8.301818 8.512563 8.527871 3.385189
13.24875 8.315618 8.393397 8.599914 3.420538
13.30679 8.302485 8.437522 8.731707 3.481575
13.19383 8.299686 8.252186 8.829802 3.580426
13.03347 8.316313 8.540773 8.905795 3.639068
13.1182 8.291859 8.302142 9.054328 3.758272
13.09316 8.288225 8.862654 9.200614 3.858841
12.87776 8.336044 8.729898 9.27868 3.952605
12.79673 8.299315
8.9603 9.414064 4.059413
12.63274 8.31019 8.999879 9.56867 4.181774
13.73135 8.323512 8.880419 9.671408 4.284243
13.80028 8.348402 9.167715 9.781197 4.395801
14.16086 7.778535 9.227444 9.85278 4.471026
12.73552 8.361888 8.512563 8.527871 3.385189
12.73817 8.338809 8.393397 8.599914 3.420538
12.75161 8.284122 8.437522 8.731707 3.481575
12.73234 8.291162 8.252186 8.829802 3.580426
12.69475 8.300406 8.540773 8.905795 3.639068
12.56332 8.305185 8.302142 9.054328 3.758272
12.74286 8.304161 8.862654 9.200614 3.858841
12.89427 8.420525 8.729898 9.27868 3.952605
12.89955 8.37711
8.9603 9.414064 4.059413
12.80981 8.322618 8.999879 9.56867 4.181774
12.26854 8.283298 8.880419 9.671408 4.284243
12.54251 8.241958 9.167715 9.781197 4.395801
10.53282 8.338478 9.186775 10.18393 4.562021
12.48057 8.258636 8.886492 10.25872 4.60517
12.63427 8.305175 8.53464 10.29567 4.639958
12.51794 8.187996 8.928919 10.36841 4.67049
12.59971 8.29166 9.761043 10.49654 4.71519
12.81299 8.318788 10.30382 10.62061 4.803857
12.83548 8.35793 10.52311 10.76212 4.880071
12.77617 8.02147 10.85184 10.87314 4.954911
12.25599 8.169507 11.28091 11.02145 5.068275
12.48512 8.387486 11.1403 11.2203 5.256974
11.19309 8.176817 11.09476 11.35589 5.36789
11.71652 8.255739 8.512563 8.527871 3.385189
13.41766 8.274779 8.393397 8.599914 3.420538
13.42215 8.211425 8.437522 8.731707 3.481575
13.35379 8.312989 8.252186 8.829802 3.580426
13.37547 8.306156 8.540773 8.905795 3.639068
13.37793 8.30383 8.302142 9.054328 3.758272
13.31853 8.303809 8.862654 9.200614 3.858841
13.43446
8.3936 8.729898 9.27868 3.952605
13.3877 8.359715
8.9603 9.414064 4.059413
13.45606 8.366234 8.999879 9.56867 4.181774
13.53263
13.41715
13.71016
13.92462
13.96171
13.90575
13.90939
14.17566
14.21194
14.41792
14.61047
14.74263
15.28663
15.18799
15.40657
15.24238
8.371936
8.237743
8.226841
8.226841
8.15191
8.119697
7.979339
8.335671
8.013012
7.59589
13.27439
13.13021
13.32128
13.27099
13.2067
13.20425
13.2708
13.28107
13.25195
13.29219
13.22402
13.10068
12.93917
12.80833
12.84919
12.77078
12.43544
12.96253
13.10467
12.95167
12.21409
8.341599
8.292355
7.822017
8.15297
8.292506
8.262872
8.314309
8.159204
8.227163
8.255973
8.302348
7.97894
8.184768
8.352443
8.152046
8.357992
9.09194
9.520892
9.447968
9.451358
9.385742
9.298083
9.098704
9.192023
9.079041
9.028194
8.258306
8.345115
8.292381
8.29287
8.294957
8.321469
8.303691
8.386388
8.375241
8.327959
8.292778
8.265647
8.193809
8.239397
8.30682
8.37248
8.212964
8.292006
8.33005
8.359828
8.007774
8.880419
9.167715
9.227444
9.188728
9.186775
8.886492
8.53464
8.928919
9.761043
10.30382
10.52311
10.85184
11.28091
11.1403
11.09476
11.11729
8.512563
8.393397
8.437522
8.252186
8.540773
8.302142
8.862654
8.729898
8.9603
8.999879
8.512563
8.393397
8.437522
8.252186
8.540773
8.302142
8.862654
8.729898
8.9603
8.999879
8.880419
9.167715
9.227444
9.188728
9.186775
8.53464
8.928919
9.761043
10.30382
10.52311
10.85184
9.671408
9.781197
9.85278
9.919986
10.18393
10.25872
10.29567
10.36841
10.49654
10.62061
10.76212
10.87314
11.02145
11.2203
11.35589
11.53466
8.527871
8.599914
8.731707
8.829802
8.905795
9.054328
9.200614
9.27868
9.414064
9.56867
8.527871
8.599914
8.731707
8.829802
8.905795
9.054328
9.200614
9.27868
9.414064
9.56867
9.671408
9.781197
9.85278
9.919986
10.18393
10.29567
10.36841
10.49654
10.62061
10.76212
10.87314
4.284243
4.395801
4.471026
4.526805
4.562021
4.60517
4.639958
4.67049
4.71519
4.803857
4.880071
4.954911
5.068275
5.256974
5.36789
5.498233
3.385189
3.420538
3.481575
3.580426
3.639068
3.758272
3.858841
3.952605
4.059413
4.181774
3.385189
3.420538
3.481575
3.580426
3.639068
3.758272
3.858841
3.952605
4.059413
4.181774
4.284243
4.395801
4.471026
4.526805
4.562021
4.639958
4.67049
4.71519
4.803857
4.880071
4.954911
13.51083
13.37473
13.58537
13.25195
13.17754
13.22787
13.21625
12.96361
13.0423
12.88052
13.18808
13.07888
13.12648
12.836
13.1472
12.99806
12.63428
12.75006
12.58396
12.60719
12.31734
13.06464
13.0705
12.70454
12.68837
12.00743
12.60645
12.53475
12.54026
12.45208
12.54511
12.47192
12.59531
12.40381
12.62207
11.7115
12.7851
12.5043
12.81132
12.73327
12.83211
12.71285
12.79633
12.98801
13.18955
13.23615
13.22983
8.060882
8.122255
8.384624
8.25199
8.235929
8.253777
8.237289
8.258379
8.228896
8.299924
8.288848
8.259061
8.212713
8.231422
8.234567
8.228623
8.252306
8.306045
8.345693
8.35644
8.295819
8.334742
8.32812
8.229167
8.502245
8.288153
8.06461
8.285799
8.307494
8.30406
8.308346
8.31673
8.319831
8.164433
8.521713
8.334586
8.490064
8.255121
8.1909
8.218071
8.364046
8.324732
8.39145
8.190468
8.192414
8.296035
8.361584
11.1403
11.09476
11.11729
8.512563
8.393397
8.437522
8.252186
8.540773
8.302142
8.862654
8.729898
8.9603
8.999879
8.880419
9.167715
9.227444
9.188728
9.186775
8.886492
8.53464
8.928919
10.30382
10.52311
10.85184
11.1403
11.09476
8.512563
8.393397
8.437522
8.252186
8.540773
8.302142
8.862654
8.729898
8.9603
8.999879
8.880419
9.167715
9.227444
9.188728
9.186775
8.886492
8.53464
8.928919
9.761043
10.30382
10.52311
11.2203
11.35589
11.53466
8.527871
8.599914
8.731707
8.829802
8.905795
9.054328
9.200614
9.27868
9.414064
9.56867
9.671408
9.781197
9.85278
9.919986
10.18393
10.25872
10.29567
10.36841
10.62061
10.76212
10.87314
11.2203
11.35589
8.527871
8.599914
8.731707
8.829802
8.905795
9.054328
9.200614
9.27868
9.414064
9.56867
9.671408
9.781197
9.85278
9.919986
10.18393
10.25872
10.29567
10.36841
10.49654
10.62061
10.76212
5.256974
5.36789
5.498233
3.385189
3.420538
3.481575
3.580426
3.639068
3.758272
3.858841
3.952605
4.059413
4.181774
4.284243
4.395801
4.471026
4.526805
4.562021
4.60517
4.639958
4.67049
4.803857
4.880071
4.954911
5.256974
5.36789
3.385189
3.420538
3.481575
3.580426
3.639068
3.758272
3.858841
3.952605
4.059413
4.181774
4.284243
4.395801
4.471026
4.526805
4.562021
4.60517
4.639958
4.67049
4.71519
4.803857
4.880071
13.16951
13.06627
13.5656
13.991
14.21761
12.60635
12.62659
12.66594
12.65004
12.61567
12.5986
13.08579
13.16202
13.10113
13.10748
13.08545
13.06984
13.20913
13.71042
13.82497
13.71763
13.77663
13.82396
13.9353
14.09695
14.20081
14.11781
14.83714
14.94666
15.02865
14.86726
13.3592
13.34361
13.331
13.43488
13.42636
13.34893
13.43074
13.43231
13.34198
13.32394
13.31429
13.08425
12.77835
11.8245
13.43122
13.52874
8.029437
8.145664
8.33164
8.08326
8.314726
8.284384
8.287573
8.293013
8.318835
8.320556
8.338233
8.418868
8.492856
8.493166
8.44127
8.411885
8.372674
8.017321
8.27887
8.380927
8.344595
8.38477
8.264576
8.366666
8.402729
8.391916
8.070466
8.132643
8.384181
8.253585
8.393129
8.252738
8.294811
8.387819
8.290476
8.301381
8.304109
8.297973
8.314525
8.315318
8.325485
8.278482
8.266061
8.213625
8.234236
8.369812
8.275218
10.85184
11.28091
11.1403
11.09476
11.11729
8.512563
8.393397
8.437522
8.252186
8.540773
8.302142
8.862654
8.729898
8.9603
8.999879
8.880419
9.167715
9.227444
9.188728
9.186775
8.886492
8.53464
8.928919
9.761043
10.30382
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